It is on the Russian aid to Kyrgyzstan.
http://eurasianet.org/departments/insightb/articles/eav021809.shtml
Also coming up is an argumentative essay on terms of Russian-Kyrgyz agreement, especially 1.7 billion to Kambarata project. It will go along the lines of what Bakyt Beshimov told pravda.kg
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Kommersant was right...Bravo!
Kyrgyzstan closes Manas airbase, secures 2 billion of credit from Russia
When Presidents of Russia and Kyrgyzstan were negotiating behind closed doors yesterday night, Russian TV-channel “Mir” called this visit ‘one of the most important in Bakiev’s career’. As the results of the meeting were announced it was clear – very important outcomes indeed.
The biggest surprise was the decision to close the American airbase stationed at Manas airport just outside Bishkek. The airbase has been there since the beginning of military campaign in Afghanistan in 2001. The possible closing of Manas became a part of the media discourse in mid-January, but after the statements of U.S. Central Command chief General David Petraeus on January 19 pointing to the contrary, the intrigue surrounding the issue seemed to have come down.
Part of confidence that the airbase would stay came from understanding that American airbase in the region also corresponded with Russian interests in terms of stability in the region and bringing peace to Afghanistan. Moreover, just hours before the meeting NATO Special Representative for Central Asia and Caucasus Robert Simmons told “24.kg” that the issue was not raised during his talks with Kyrgyz officials.
Even though Bakiev promised that his country “will pass necessary procedures”, eviction of the airbase seems to be a difficult legal procedure. According to Bakyt Beshimov, leader of the Social-Democrat fraction in the parliament, the airbase was set up in the framework of multinational Operation “Enduring Freedom” and it would be necessary to reach an agreement with all the military partners.
A second important decision reached in Moscow is the agreement signed by countries on the construction of Kambarata-1 power station on the Naryn river, a project that would add to the Kyrgyz energy sector at the expense of the Uzbek agricultural sector. Tashkent has long been very negative on any project influencing its water supply through Syrdarya river.
Financing Kyrgyz initiatives in hydro energy construction was first discussed in December, 2008 at the meeting of Russian and Kyrgyz Premiers, Vladimir Putin and Igor Chudinov. Then Putin stated that such projects are viable and that they are of interest to Kyrgyz, as well as Russian businesses.
However, President Medvedev during his official visit to Uzbekistan on January 22-23, 2009, noted that “all such projects should be set up taking into account the views of neighbors.” Mr. Medvedev also noted that Russian Federation would step in as an investor only when a regional consensus has been reached. Well aware of the fact that Uzbekistan would hardly support such construction initiatives, local pundits saw this as Russia politely pulling out of the project.
One of the factors playing against Russian investments into Kyrgyzstan, according to Mr. Beshimov was Russia’s efforts to secure the flow of Central Asian gas and oil exclusively through Russian pipelines and the resulting unwillingness of Medvedev to spoil the relationship with one of the big exporters – Uzbekistan.
Added to these were economic difficulties in Russia itself – slowdown of the Russian economy and falling oil prices. In this view, news of a two-billion credit, distributed by RIA news agency, came as a big surprise. Terms and conditions of the credit have not been publicized so far. President Medvedev merely noted that part of the allocated money would go to support infrastructure projects, including Kambarata-1, and part – to support Kyrgyz budget.
Most likely, 300 million dollars were given as a lax credit under 0.75 percent for 40 years, and the rest went to support construction at Kambarata. In addition to this, Russia gave 150 million more in financial aid.
The parties settled the issue of Kyrgyz foreign debt to Russia (180 million dollars). However, it is not clear whether Kyrgyzstan in return gave up 48% of Dastan, a local strategic military manufacturer. If it turns out that Kyrgyzstan gave up part of Dastan this write-off might not have been a victory at all. According to MP Bakyt Beshimov, no one can adequately evaluate the deal unless the absolute numbers behind “48%” are publicized. It might turn out that almost half of the shares are much more expensive than 180 million.
Uzbekistan did not have time to react to the deal yet. Some statements may be made today by President Karimov at the sessions of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Nevertheless, one thing is clear: in its current form the deal stroke by Kyrgyz and Russian Presidents does not satisfy resource-rich and water-poor Uzbekistan. .
When Presidents of Russia and Kyrgyzstan were negotiating behind closed doors yesterday night, Russian TV-channel “Mir” called this visit ‘one of the most important in Bakiev’s career’. As the results of the meeting were announced it was clear – very important outcomes indeed.
The biggest surprise was the decision to close the American airbase stationed at Manas airport just outside Bishkek. The airbase has been there since the beginning of military campaign in Afghanistan in 2001. The possible closing of Manas became a part of the media discourse in mid-January, but after the statements of U.S. Central Command chief General David Petraeus on January 19 pointing to the contrary, the intrigue surrounding the issue seemed to have come down.
Part of confidence that the airbase would stay came from understanding that American airbase in the region also corresponded with Russian interests in terms of stability in the region and bringing peace to Afghanistan. Moreover, just hours before the meeting NATO Special Representative for Central Asia and Caucasus Robert Simmons told “24.kg” that the issue was not raised during his talks with Kyrgyz officials.
Even though Bakiev promised that his country “will pass necessary procedures”, eviction of the airbase seems to be a difficult legal procedure. According to Bakyt Beshimov, leader of the Social-Democrat fraction in the parliament, the airbase was set up in the framework of multinational Operation “Enduring Freedom” and it would be necessary to reach an agreement with all the military partners.
A second important decision reached in Moscow is the agreement signed by countries on the construction of Kambarata-1 power station on the Naryn river, a project that would add to the Kyrgyz energy sector at the expense of the Uzbek agricultural sector. Tashkent has long been very negative on any project influencing its water supply through Syrdarya river.
Financing Kyrgyz initiatives in hydro energy construction was first discussed in December, 2008 at the meeting of Russian and Kyrgyz Premiers, Vladimir Putin and Igor Chudinov. Then Putin stated that such projects are viable and that they are of interest to Kyrgyz, as well as Russian businesses.
However, President Medvedev during his official visit to Uzbekistan on January 22-23, 2009, noted that “all such projects should be set up taking into account the views of neighbors.” Mr. Medvedev also noted that Russian Federation would step in as an investor only when a regional consensus has been reached. Well aware of the fact that Uzbekistan would hardly support such construction initiatives, local pundits saw this as Russia politely pulling out of the project.
One of the factors playing against Russian investments into Kyrgyzstan, according to Mr. Beshimov was Russia’s efforts to secure the flow of Central Asian gas and oil exclusively through Russian pipelines and the resulting unwillingness of Medvedev to spoil the relationship with one of the big exporters – Uzbekistan.
Added to these were economic difficulties in Russia itself – slowdown of the Russian economy and falling oil prices. In this view, news of a two-billion credit, distributed by RIA news agency, came as a big surprise. Terms and conditions of the credit have not been publicized so far. President Medvedev merely noted that part of the allocated money would go to support infrastructure projects, including Kambarata-1, and part – to support Kyrgyz budget.
Most likely, 300 million dollars were given as a lax credit under 0.75 percent for 40 years, and the rest went to support construction at Kambarata. In addition to this, Russia gave 150 million more in financial aid.
The parties settled the issue of Kyrgyz foreign debt to Russia (180 million dollars). However, it is not clear whether Kyrgyzstan in return gave up 48% of Dastan, a local strategic military manufacturer. If it turns out that Kyrgyzstan gave up part of Dastan this write-off might not have been a victory at all. According to MP Bakyt Beshimov, no one can adequately evaluate the deal unless the absolute numbers behind “48%” are publicized. It might turn out that almost half of the shares are much more expensive than 180 million.
Uzbekistan did not have time to react to the deal yet. Some statements may be made today by President Karimov at the sessions of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Nevertheless, one thing is clear: in its current form the deal stroke by Kyrgyz and Russian Presidents does not satisfy resource-rich and water-poor Uzbekistan. .
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Another rumor by 'Kommersant" - hydroelectric saga goes on
One of the big failures of mostly respected Russian periodical Kommersant was a rumor (as it turned out later) that Russia is ready to offer Kyrgyzstan 2 bln USD (300 thousand as a grant/aid and 1.7 bln of investment into the construction of Kambar Ata hydroelectric station). The newspaper referred to an informed source in the Kyrgyz government.
This ambitious project, coupled with a similar one across the border, the Rogun HES in Tajikistan, might become a threat to Uzbekistan's water supply. If the said two stations are constructed on rivers flowing to Syrdarya, then Uzbek agriculture will be left without water in the busy season, while neighbors would be producing electricity to decrase their consumption of Uzbek gas.
The big decision maker in the issue, is, of course, the Russian Federation. Many thought that official Dushanbe stroke a deal with Moscow on Rogun. Therefore, a statement made by Medvedev in Tashkent came a surprise to many, especially the Tajiks. To remind (see my post in Russian on bilateral negotiations in Tashkent) Medvedev stated that such transnational issues should be decided together, and taking into the account the interests of, neighbors. He also added that in the absence of such a consensus Russia would restrain from financing investment projects.
Tajik Foreign Affairs Ministry sent a note to Russian colleagues on January 26, in which they expressed concern and confusion with the statement. The note was delivered to a Russian diplomat in Tajikistan.
On January 29 Kommersant reported that Tajik Ambassador was summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry and given a hard talk over the note. Specifically, Russians hinted that commenting statements of high level politicians was outside the diplomatic ethics. However, both the Tajik Foreign Ministry and Ambassador Dostiev deny that visit to Russian colleagues was delivered (Asia Plus, http://asiaplus.tj/news/19/46143.html).
It seems, Kommersant is going through hard times...
This ambitious project, coupled with a similar one across the border, the Rogun HES in Tajikistan, might become a threat to Uzbekistan's water supply. If the said two stations are constructed on rivers flowing to Syrdarya, then Uzbek agriculture will be left without water in the busy season, while neighbors would be producing electricity to decrase their consumption of Uzbek gas.
The big decision maker in the issue, is, of course, the Russian Federation. Many thought that official Dushanbe stroke a deal with Moscow on Rogun. Therefore, a statement made by Medvedev in Tashkent came a surprise to many, especially the Tajiks. To remind (see my post in Russian on bilateral negotiations in Tashkent) Medvedev stated that such transnational issues should be decided together, and taking into the account the interests of, neighbors. He also added that in the absence of such a consensus Russia would restrain from financing investment projects.
Tajik Foreign Affairs Ministry sent a note to Russian colleagues on January 26, in which they expressed concern and confusion with the statement. The note was delivered to a Russian diplomat in Tajikistan.
On January 29 Kommersant reported that Tajik Ambassador was summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry and given a hard talk over the note. Specifically, Russians hinted that commenting statements of high level politicians was outside the diplomatic ethics. However, both the Tajik Foreign Ministry and Ambassador Dostiev deny that visit to Russian colleagues was delivered (Asia Plus, http://asiaplus.tj/news/19/46143.html).
It seems, Kommersant is going through hard times...
Friday, January 30, 2009
Такое не часто сообщают :)
Информагенство 24.kg сообщает:
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30/01-2009 13:54, Бишкек – ИА «24.kg», Наргиза ЮЛДАШЕВА
Президент Кыргызстана пожурил глав местных администраций, которые настойчивыми аплодисментами пытались заставить завершить речь заместителя председателя Национального банка. Замечание об этом Курманбек Бакиев высказал сегодня на республиканском совещании с главами местных администраций и государственных структур.
«Я не понял, здесь кто-то спешит домой? Когда выступал заместитель председателя НБ КР, начали хлопать, мол, спускайся с трибуны, хватит говорить. Такой подход не пойдет, - возмутился президент страны. - Вы же сами выходили сюда, благодарили, что дали возможность собраться сегодня в таком формате, а теперь когда выступает чиновник, так делаете. Или забыли, кто вы такие? Вы - руководители».
Далее глава государства подчеркнул, что руководителей различных государственных структур, таких как Национальный банк, Министерство энергетики, промышленности и топливных ресурсов страны, пригласили специально на совещание. «Мы хотели, чтобы вы лично из их уст услышали информацию о сегодняшней ситуации в стране, чтобы не было потом как «глухой телефон». А вы знаете, сколько средств было потрачено на то, чтобы привезти вас всех сюда?» - заявил в заключение Курманбек Бакиев.
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no comments...
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Почем культур-мультур?
АкиПресс пишет о деятельности Минкультуры КР за 2008. Среди прочих цифр, вот некоторые самые интересные:
Самый "большой" кусок бюджетного пирога отхватил Цирк - целых десять штук сомов (250 долларов), Театр оперы и балета - 8 штук сомов. Самые смешные цифры у Государственного исторического музея - 3 тысячи (75 долларов). Трудно живется артистам, их можно понять. Но они-то хоть могут пару хороших концертов и пьес поставаить, скинутся на ремонт. А что с библиотекарями? Даже при желании они свое старье никому не смогут толкнуть, вот и сидят наверное бедняги на бюджетных 3000 сомах заработной платы...
На другом конце палки, Правительство КР вовсю пытается увеличить бюджет (это-то в условиях финансового кризиса, когда обычно увеличивают госрасходы), посредством ужесточения налогового законодательства. Никому еще не понятно полностью к чему это приведет, но многие предприниматели, финансисты и экономисты уверены, что к росту "теневой" экономики - меньше поступлений в дырявую казну, меньше денег для разворовывания и определенно меньше денег на ремонт памятников советской экономической мощи - театров, библиотек и т.д. и на зарплату библиотекарям...
Самый "большой" кусок бюджетного пирога отхватил Цирк - целых десять штук сомов (250 долларов), Театр оперы и балета - 8 штук сомов. Самые смешные цифры у Государственного исторического музея - 3 тысячи (75 долларов). Трудно живется артистам, их можно понять. Но они-то хоть могут пару хороших концертов и пьес поставаить, скинутся на ремонт. А что с библиотекарями? Даже при желании они свое старье никому не смогут толкнуть, вот и сидят наверное бедняги на бюджетных 3000 сомах заработной платы...
На другом конце палки, Правительство КР вовсю пытается увеличить бюджет (это-то в условиях финансового кризиса, когда обычно увеличивают госрасходы), посредством ужесточения налогового законодательства. Никому еще не понятно полностью к чему это приведет, но многие предприниматели, финансисты и экономисты уверены, что к росту "теневой" экономики - меньше поступлений в дырявую казну, меньше денег для разворовывания и определенно меньше денег на ремонт памятников советской экономической мощи - театров, библиотек и т.д. и на зарплату библиотекарям...
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
О так называемых политологах
Очень часто за последнее время замечаю в новостных лентах комментарии "известных политологов." Я бы ничего не говорил, если бы не комментарии некоего политолога на одном их местных каналов сразу после речи Президента.
"Политолог" не был соответствующе одет даже. Говорил на отвлеченные темы. Приводил отвлеченные примеры. Вообще меня поражает глубокие знания "политологов" в российской и советской истории. Но исторические примеры часто используются не по назначению.
Вообще надо разделять политолога от "эксперта" или тех, кого в англоязычном мире называют pundit. Последние представляют собой категорию людей уважаемых и образованнх которые комменрируют разного рода события и идеи. А политолог ведь это человек с соответсвующим образованием, теоретической и методологической подготовкой, political scientist как их принято называть на Западе.
Последнее - комментируешь - будь добр отвечать на вопрос прямо и подтверждать аргумент фактами или доказательствами. У нас же принято важно говорить и читать нотации ссылаясь (нагласно) только на свой авторитет и прокрученное имя.
"Политолог" не был соответствующе одет даже. Говорил на отвлеченные темы. Приводил отвлеченные примеры. Вообще меня поражает глубокие знания "политологов" в российской и советской истории. Но исторические примеры часто используются не по назначению.
Вообще надо разделять политолога от "эксперта" или тех, кого в англоязычном мире называют pundit. Последние представляют собой категорию людей уважаемых и образованнх которые комменрируют разного рода события и идеи. А политолог ведь это человек с соответсвующим образованием, теоретической и методологической подготовкой, political scientist как их принято называть на Западе.
Последнее - комментируешь - будь добр отвечать на вопрос прямо и подтверждать аргумент фактами или доказательствами. У нас же принято важно говорить и читать нотации ссылаясь (нагласно) только на свой авторитет и прокрученное имя.
Monday, January 26, 2009
Light shed on reasons behind reshuffles
Many opinions were voiced over the recent political reshuffles in the Executive. Never before have more than a dozen high officials lost their seat in a single day and more than 20 in a month.
The most surprising change came in early January with resignation of Medet Sadyrkulov and his protege Elmira Ibraimova (from positions of the Head of Presidential Administration and Vice Speaker of Parliament respectively). When Daniyar Usenov, a long-time adversary of Sadyrkulov came to occupy the seat, many expected purges in higher echelons of power. And that is exactly what happened in late January.
Even though President Bakiyev and several pro-power pundits stress that more young cadres with good education and proven experience were needed in the Executive, the matter of fact seems to be that Usenov is now pulling his own people into the White House. Even though President's changing favorites is not yet fully explained the following hypothesis seems to be a more plausible one: with presidential elections coming in 2010, Bakiev is getting ready for a tough battle with the opposition. However, the opposition might mobilize people even this spring, as soon as it gets warm enought for people to show up and stay.
Maybe that's why opposition leaders are being fiercely persecuted. To be more specific, criminal case has been opened up against O.Tekebayev for illegal modification of an assault weapon's bullet magazine.
President signed a bill recently allowing the involvement of the Army in civic affairs, another measure in case opposition gets too strong.
The most surprising change came in early January with resignation of Medet Sadyrkulov and his protege Elmira Ibraimova (from positions of the Head of Presidential Administration and Vice Speaker of Parliament respectively). When Daniyar Usenov, a long-time adversary of Sadyrkulov came to occupy the seat, many expected purges in higher echelons of power. And that is exactly what happened in late January.
Even though President Bakiyev and several pro-power pundits stress that more young cadres with good education and proven experience were needed in the Executive, the matter of fact seems to be that Usenov is now pulling his own people into the White House. Even though President's changing favorites is not yet fully explained the following hypothesis seems to be a more plausible one: with presidential elections coming in 2010, Bakiev is getting ready for a tough battle with the opposition. However, the opposition might mobilize people even this spring, as soon as it gets warm enought for people to show up and stay.
Maybe that's why opposition leaders are being fiercely persecuted. To be more specific, criminal case has been opened up against O.Tekebayev for illegal modification of an assault weapon's bullet magazine.
President signed a bill recently allowing the involvement of the Army in civic affairs, another measure in case opposition gets too strong.
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